That's false. I posted the odds above. They are given a 41% chance of taking 3 points and we are given 32% chance. That's not even close to 2 to 1. As I said, our expected return is 1.2 points: (32% x 3) + (27% * 1) = 1.23 points. If we really want to challenge for something this year, falling slightly short of bookies' expectations is not how we're going to do it.