[OMT] Spurs Host Man Citeh at Wembley [PL] Mon 29 Oct 22:00 BST

Discussion in 'Match Day Chat' started by pistols_at_dawn, Oct 26, 2018.

  1. pistols_at_dawn Well-Known Member

    pistols_at_dawn
    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,319
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +876 / 22 / -0
    Big ups to Joe Prince-Wright of NBC Sports for picking Spurs to *upset* the Citizens 2-1 on Monday night at Wembley!

    I'll just say I hope we put up a spirited fight! (And a draw would be a great result!)

    Lloris
    Aurier - Toby - Sanchez - Rose
    Dier - Dembele
    Lamela - Eriksen - Lucas
    Kane
  2. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,136
    Location:
    United States
    Ratings:
    +2,809 / 73 / -0
    Our average expected points from this game from oddsmakers is 20.83% chance of winning x 3 points plus 22.97% chance of draw = .855 points. So this is one of the rare scenarios where a draw is a modestly good result.
  3. Del Boy N17 Active Member

    Del Boy N17
    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    880
    Ratings:
    +600 / 16 / -0
    3-0 city, sorry guys
  4. Why Do We Bother? Well-Known Member

    Why Do We Bother?
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,974
    Location:
    Northern Ireland / USA
    Ratings:
    +3,087 / 124 / -0
    Mentally this should be treated as a cup final.
    I know that’s small club mentality, but I don’t mean it in that way, I think if we can get the points here it could set us up nicely for the next 10 games, hopefully having learned from beating Utd to that shit show with Watford that followed...
    We are out of the CL, we most likely will exit the league cup next week, so why not set a target in the league and see where we are by the time the FA cup comes around and the Europa starts up again, if we manage to qualify.
    Let’s do a Leicester...cup final, cup final, cup final, week after week after week!! 2-0 Spurs
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  5. AlabamaSpur Well-Known Member

    AlabamaSpur
    Joined:
    May 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,421
    Location:
    Sweet Home Alabama
    Ratings:
    +1,361 / 60 / -0
    Hugo
    Trips-Sanchez-Toby-Davies
    Dier-Winks
    Eriksen-Dele-Lamela
    Kane

    Wouldn't be too surprised to see a back 3 in this one though. With Dele or Eriksen playing deeper. 2-1 to the bad guys in this one I'm afraid. They'll be up 2-0 and we will nick a late one to make it exciting.
  6. mr whitey Well-Known Member

    mr whitey
    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2013
    Messages:
    2,654
    Location:
    uk
    Ratings:
    +2,315 / 31 / -0
    We are going to persist with playing a high line and trying to press. It's great when you are playing inferior sides, but why we still do it against City I have no idea. Pressing brilliant players is problematic, as they are brilliant. They don't panic and lose the ball. Playing a high line and condensing the pitch isn't that good of an idea against brilliant players,as due their brilliance they can play in congested areas under pressure. It's why they cost so much. Then those brilliant players can exploit the space behind our high line with brilliant passing, pace and brilliant finishing.

    It was great beating City doing this a couple of years ago, but since then they've signed a load more brilliant players and we haven't. Hence they are now better in these kind of games than us.

    Why we can't just play a bit deeper I don't know, but I'm sure we wont.
  7. ehh56 Well-Known Member

    ehh56
    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Messages:
    3,559
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +1,438 / 51 / -0
    I would be content with just eliminating the back passes. We lost another goal that way last game, this time it was Toby. But whatever, we have proved that we don't deal well with pressure along our back line. So I'm OK with a high line and I'm OK with trying to play it out of the back, but please, no futsal in our own box.
  8. spursman18 Super Moderators

    spursman18
    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    30,146
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +13,025 / 28 / -0
    So you want us to sit back against a team like City and just try to absord their attack?

    You press players and good players to not make them uncomfortable which in turn shouldn’t allow them to do what they want with the ball
  9. mr whitey Well-Known Member

    mr whitey
    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2013
    Messages:
    2,654
    Location:
    uk
    Ratings:
    +2,315 / 31 / -0
    Yes because I actually watched us play LIverpool and they ended up having 12 shots on target which is treble what we usually give away at home.

    Last season when we played City at home we also conceded 12 chances on target. Again, I stress that is 3 times what we usually give up at home.

    You can't expect to win games if you are so open. You give away chances to the best and they bury you. If we play high line and press high, they will pick us apart as they did last season and as Liverpool did.

    So far this season City are creating an incredible average of 22 shots per game. Last season they averaged 17.4 and were the most creative team in the league. So you can see how crazy 22 per game is.

    We've got to tactically smarter than we normally are against teams with the pace and finishing of Liverpool and City. To suggest otherwise is to act as if we haven't played them in the last 6 months!

    Why would you want us to play in a way that you've seen us seriously struggle in?
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. spursman18 Super Moderators

    spursman18
    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    30,146
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +13,025 / 28 / -0
    It's a catch 22 situation

    you press, you're suspect to be carved open...

    you sit back, you invite pressure into your own half....

    Poch isnt going to change what has worked for us for the majority of his time here. That philosophy has been drilled into our players and if you send the message out to sit back and invite pressure you're telling yourself and your players that you're weaker than them. Not exactly the right mindset for our players to go and play with.

    City will create chances no matter who they play against. We've had success against them because we've been relentless in our pressure and that the only way you beat a team like City, pressure them.
    • Like Like x 1
  11. AlabamaSpur Well-Known Member

    AlabamaSpur
    Joined:
    May 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,421
    Location:
    Sweet Home Alabama
    Ratings:
    +1,361 / 60 / -0
    We sat back and countered Madrid and Dortmund in the CL last year and it worked pretty well.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. mr whitey Well-Known Member

    mr whitey
    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2013
    Messages:
    2,654
    Location:
    uk
    Ratings:
    +2,315 / 31 / -0
    But surely you'd rather see us lose by trying something different, that lose by doing the same thing again. We lost 1-3 and 4-1 to City last season. They've since strengthened and we've not added to our squad. All the stats suggest they are playing even better this season and ours suggest we are playing worse (on know the points we have).

    I've got to disagree with you point about not changing things, so as to not look weak. That's basically saying a coach and his team shouldn't be tactically flexible, which is a bit ridiculous in my opinion. I don't think it's going to come as a shock to the likes of Davies, Toby, Dier and Trips to hear Poch thinks City have more pace and good quality passing than any other team in the league, so he' concerned about us playing too high. As @AlabamaSpur has pointed out, Poch has done it in Europe and the players responded.

    Let's be honest, I think we all agree that however we play, it's going to be very hard to get a result or even avoid defeat. I don't think many would be shocked by a big defeat.

    But I think many of us will be frustrated if we continually see City getting in behind with incisive passing and pace and also forcing errors out of us, which become massive problems due to the space in behind. It was only in April that Komapny played the ball over the top that Jesus scored from to give them the lead. We can get away with that kind of things against many teams, but players like Jesus have the technique to control and finish these long passes. They don't a couple of touches, one of which that takes them a bit wide, so we can pressure him. Brilliant players can do these things. Look at the next goal, which came from Sterling having the speed to get in behind and cut into the box, for Sanchez to bring him down. Again, you can often get away with that against lesser teams, but City have stars everywhere.

    This is a good tactical analysis of that game and it shows really well how they exploited our high line.

    • Like Like x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  13. ctw01 Well-Known Member

    ctw01
    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2010
    Messages:
    11,535
    Location:
    N Wales
    Ratings:
    +3,792 / 49 / -0
    You can set up in your favoured way in a lot of games but against citeh it needs a bit more thought to look to stay in the game as long as poss, and take our chances when they come.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. Dave Well-Known Member

    Dave
    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    6,400
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +4,316 / 78 / -0
    Sooner get beat and have a go. We've beaten City and Liverpool not too long ago by going at them. Sometimes it might not work but id sooner take the risk.

    I'm not sure Poch is tactically up to shutting up shop. It takes a differnt type of manager and different type of player.

    We need AvB and his 36 players at the back, then still proceed to get stuffed 6-0 and 5-0. I just dont think it suits us.
    Dave,
  15. mr whitey Well-Known Member

    mr whitey
    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2013
    Messages:
    2,654
    Location:
    uk
    Ratings:
    +2,315 / 31 / -0
    But it's not about not having a go. We aren't talking about sitting back a defending for 90 mins. We are talking about not playing such a high line, to stop their speedy players getting so much space in behind and not pressing so high, so as to stop their creative players having space in between the lines.

    The City team we beat finished 3rd on 78 pts. The team that beat us twice last season won the league on 101 points, a massive 23 points ahead of us. That's the same gap as between us a Burnley. City are playing even better this season.
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Why Do We Bother? Well-Known Member

    Why Do We Bother?
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,974
    Location:
    Northern Ireland / USA
    Ratings:
    +3,087 / 124 / -0
    All the great managers of the modern game have the ability to abandon their preferred methods just to get a result against a rival, no matter what it looks like on the day, it’s all about not losing ground to a direct rival....
    This may not be necessarily a formation change, it might be personal changes, or a combination of both....
    City won’t change too much against us, they will prepare to use their pace behind our high line, and press the crap out of our “play it out from the back” style....people often ask in disbelief how Holland never win world cups, simple, they have an abundance of talent and left alone to play their game they will destroy you, counter that style and they bottle it...
    As I say City will not change much to play Spurs, but how much of their preparation will be about Kane? Stop Kane you stop Spurs and our front line will do the rest.....
    Option 1 remove Kane from the equation and play false 9.
    Option 2 play Llorente alongside Kane, not one conversation Pep had with his team this week would he have uttered the word Llorente..

    It doesn’t have to be drastic changes, but if we don’t change a thing I can bet you now this forum will be asking the question during the game why Kane is playing so deep?
    Two reasons, City will stand on their own 18 yard line and we don’t have a ball player who can execute that pass between their Centre half’s which allows Kane to lie on their shoulder, instead he will drop off trying to influence the play...Play Llorente alongside him and that all changes, City must bring a fullback inside.
    Play a false 9 and that changes De Byrune’s game by making him work left and right of his Centre half’s instead of centre leaving Silva more exposed and in theory less effective....
  17. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,136
    Location:
    United States
    Ratings:
    +2,809 / 73 / -0
    I think this game demands a back 5, even without our only natural LCB. To go after City is insanity, we have to counter attack.

    Lloris
    Trippier Dier Sanchez Toby Rose
    Dier Winks
    Moura Kane Eriksen

    I think this gives us our best chance to effectively defend vs City while having some players on the field who can ignite a counter attack.
  18. spursman18 Super Moderators

    spursman18
    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    30,146
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +13,025 / 28 / -0
    Insanity is also trying to play the same player in the same team
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2018
    • Funny Funny x 1
  19. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,136
    Location:
    United States
    Ratings:
    +2,809 / 73 / -0
    Huh?
  20. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    Messages:
    5,136
    Location:
    United States
    Ratings:
    +2,809 / 73 / -0
    Oh lol! Good point.

    I guess I need to rethink it. Wanyama unavailable?
  21. pistols_at_dawn Well-Known Member

    pistols_at_dawn
    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2014
    Messages:
    1,319
    Location:
    New York City
    Ratings:
    +876 / 22 / -0
    I wonder if Lamela could ever be deployed in a holding role. He's a destroyer.
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  22. spursman18 Super Moderators

    spursman18
    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    30,146
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +13,025 / 28 / -0

    I think he's crocked, not completely but i think his injury is going to persist much like Winks has.
  23. ehh56 Well-Known Member

    ehh56
    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2013
    Messages:
    3,559
    Location:
    Virginia
    Ratings:
    +1,438 / 51 / -0
    If not more. I think he has a degenerative joint condition. Basically the surfaces of the joint have worn out and there's no fixing that.
  24. Dave Well-Known Member

    Dave
    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    6,400
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +4,316 / 78 / -0
    Course its about having a go. We cannot sit back against City. They'll pick us off and we arent good enough to play that way or have the players to play that way.

    They'll be all over us when we have the ball. We will be too deep and we simply dont have the quality to pass it around in our own half.

    You didnt see Liverpool sitting back against them last season. They destroyed City.

    We have to get straight at them imo.
    Dave,
  25. ctw01 Well-Known Member

    ctw01
    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2010
    Messages:
    11,535
    Location:
    N Wales
    Ratings:
    +3,792 / 49 / -0
    I reckonn Pep concentrates on getting what he wants from his own players, regardless of the opposition and what they have to offer ,so I doubt there will be any special plan in place for Kane or anyone else , unless its something he thinks they can exploit.
  26. Dave Well-Known Member

    Dave
    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2011
    Messages:
    6,400
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +4,316 / 78 / -0
    Counter attacking football with hardly any pace in the team? Thats a borderline back 7.

    If that was the plan, id stick Aurier in. Thats if hes not injured.

    Its probably why we needed a Zaha type signing. Nowhere near enough pace in the squad. Eriksen in midfield instead of Dier2 and Son further forward?
    Dave,
  27. delboy57 Well-Known Member

    delboy57
    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2014
    Messages:
    1,057
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +437 / 10 / -0
    Son and Moura if we want speed!
    • Agree Agree x 1
  28. mr whitey Well-Known Member

    mr whitey
    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2013
    Messages:
    2,654
    Location:
    uk
    Ratings:
    +2,315 / 31 / -0
    You misread what I posted. I said "it's NOT about not having a go." The suggestion isn't to just sit back either. It's not to play a high line or high press. Not doing those things doesn't mean the absolute opposite is required. There is a middle ground.

    But anyway you are wrong about Liverpool. They had just 34% of the ball, which was the lowest amount of possession that had all season and by a very long way. To put it in perspective the team with the lowest average possession in the Prem this season is Cardif on 38%. That tells just how little of the ball Liverpool saw.

    Here are the heat maps for the game, Liverpool on the left, City on the right. As you can see Liverpool have significantly less of their possession in the City half. They literally sat deep.

    upload_2018-10-27_23-2-56.png upload_2018-10-27_23-3-9.png

    Their success all started from a break down the right hand side from which they scored.

    Interestingly the possession stats were exactly the same when Liverpool beat them in the league also, so it wasn't just a case of this game turning out like that
  29. Why Do We Bother? Well-Known Member

    Why Do We Bother?
    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2012
    Messages:
    4,974
    Location:
    Northern Ireland / USA
    Ratings:
    +3,087 / 124 / -0
    ............................Lloris.......................
    Tripper...Alderwierld...Sanchez...Rose

    ..................Dembele....Dier.................

    ...........................Eriksen.....................

    Lucas.................Lamela................Son

    Don’t start Kane
  30. AlabamaSpur Well-Known Member

    AlabamaSpur
    Joined:
    May 21, 2015
    Messages:
    2,421
    Location:
    Sweet Home Alabama
    Ratings:
    +1,361 / 60 / -0
    Dude. There’s a zero percent chance Kane won’t start.
    • Agree Agree x 1

Share This Page