Top 4 odds thread

Discussion in 'Players Lounge' started by bfwolf, Feb 8, 2013.

  1. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    Last year, about half the forum was up in arms a few weeks from the end of the season--convinced our poor form was going to cause us to miss a top 4 spot. But the people with real skin in the game, bettors, saw our relatively easy schedule made us strong favorites for a top 4 spot and had us at short odds. As usual, they were right. Of course, Chelsea's CL triumph screwed us out of our just desserts, but the bettors were right nonetheless.

    So I thought it would be interesting to have a thread where we keep track of top 4 odds for the remainder of the season. Right now, the longest odds you can get on teams finishing in the top 4 are:

    Chelsea 1/4
    Spurs 1
    Arsenal 6/5
    Everton 7
    Liverpool 7

    Basically, bettors are saying Chelsea is a near lock, Everton and Liverpool are long shots, and we and Arsenal will be battling it out for the remaining spot.
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  2. rhonkt Well-Known Member

    rhonkt
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    A bit strange to have Liverpool and Everton as same odds, Everton have been better all season and more established as a squad. Must be because Everton have a slightly tougher remaining schedule.

    Otherwise I agree with the odds. I think Chelsea will turn it on the next few games, then maybe slip again when they have nothing to play for, then turn it on at the end to finish third.
  3. DorsetSpursFan Not a xylophone

    DorsetSpursFan
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    Funny thing odds, Crouchy was short odds on the last day of the transfer window to sign for QPR - big money invested.

    There's obviously no value in backing Chelsea, us of the scum at those prices, but I might lay Chelsea to not make top 4 for a few quid as I think they could take a tumble.
  4. juniormackay Active Member

    juniormackay
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    The best price there is obviously everton at 7s. Otherwise I would lay Chelsea at that price.
    Given all that, hope whoever bets on us collects a fookin bundle.
  5. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    I agree, best value to me is Everton or betting against Chelsea.

    Most books have Everton at shorter odds than Liverpool, but there is one book that has them at 7/1 so that's what I listed.
  6. brainiac Well-Known Member

    brainiac
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    Spurs 1???

    Does that mean 'evens' in old school betting terms?... Fookin decimal betting odds get right up my snout :18:

    Which puts Arsenal only very slightly further out than us.

    For those members who dont bet...... if you put £10 on us you get £10 profit

    If some dumb cnut put £10 on Arsenal they would get £12 profit.

    which equates to the bookies feeling that spurs have a 20% better chance of a top 4 spot:y2: Nice!!!

    (20% of £10 = £2......£10 + £2 = £12 a 20% bigger profit & 20% bigger risk/loss for the bookie)
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  7. Bogota Yid Well-Known Member

    Bogota Yid
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    Sounds bout right
  8. USspur Well-Known Member

    USspur
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    odds for relegation?
  9. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    QPR 1/2
    Villa 4/6
    Reading 8/11
    Wigan 1
    Southampton 23/10
  10. adam_yid-army New Member

    adam_yid-army
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    No mate if they put £10 on arsenal they would lose £10 lol
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  11. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    Update:

    Chelsea 1/5
    Spurs 4/5
    Arsenal 10/11
    Everton 8
    Liverpool 16

    Top 3 there all got slightly shorter with their wins. Everton didn't drop much with loss, nobody expected them to beat Man U. Liverpool's odds more than doubled with their loss to West Brom.
  12. brainiac Well-Known Member

    brainiac
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    As a proven Jinx I will take the 5th amendment & not answer that with an over confident witty retort..... you could be very right but I cant say :y2:

    @bfwolf

    Hmmm so that means that the bookies think that spurs have a 30% better chance of top 4

    £10 on spurs returns an £8 gain
    £10 on the unwashed returns a bigger gain of £9.90....... the bookies feel that offering 19% extra return on £10 is realistic as Spurs have a 19% better chance of getting 4th

    £1.90 difference on a £10 bet = 19%

    [​IMG]
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
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  13. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    You've got Arsenal backwards. You'd have to bet 11 to win 10
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  14. Larcenist Active Member

    Larcenist
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    I usually like to attach percentages to these even though they say it doesn't really work that way. :p

    Chelsea 1/5 - 100/((1+5)/5) = 83.33%
    Spurs 4/5 - 100/((4+5)/5) = 55.55%
    Arsenal 10/11 - 100/((10+11)/11) = 53.38%
    Everton 8 - 100/((8+1)/1) = 11.11%
    Liverpool 16 - 100/((16+1)/1) = 5.88%
  15. corroded Well-Known Member

    corroded
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    Realistically though these bets are based on public perceptions also... it is likely Arsenal and Chelsea are more heavily backed than Tottenham, due to recent form, thus will have lower odds.
  16. moe888 Well-Known Member

    moe888
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    I have to say thats a very odd way to work out percentages.

    I would have done (5/5+1)*100 for the first one and similar for the rest.
  17. brainiac Well-Known Member

    brainiac
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    Doh

    This is more like it

    £10 on spurs returns an £8 gain
    £10 on the unwashed returns a bigger gain of £9.90....... the bookies feel that offering 19% extra return on £10 is realistic as Spurs have a 19% better chance of getting 4th

    £1.90 difference on a £10 bet = 19%
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
  18. The Cryptkeeper Well-Known Member

    The Cryptkeeper
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    Stick a fork in Liverpool. They are done.
  19. SalvatoreGiuseppe Well-Known Member

    SalvatoreGiuseppe
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    what are Citys odds, out of curiosity?
  20. Larcenist Active Member

    Larcenist
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    Eh either way works I guess. =P That's just the way it was explained when I first wanted to do it and didn't really understand odds too well. Mainly wanted to calculate odds for a fantasy game. =P Your way is obviously simpler.
  21. The Cryptkeeper Well-Known Member

    The Cryptkeeper
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    1/33 which is worth laying in my opinion.
  22. Don Diaz Well-Known Member

    Don Diaz
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    Yep I'm with this too.....and don't be surprised if City slide backwards but probably not out of the top 4. I'm certain but can't prove it that there is unrest behind the scenes at Chelsea and the waiter doesn't know what he's doing. They will only be saved if John Terry takes over for the last 10 games of the season...ha ha. More importantly these odds will change dramatically with our games against Arsenal and Chelsea, if we won those and performed to usual form in the rest (City home win as well maybe) I reckon we're a good bet for third and that really would be some achievement....letters to Roman Abramovich please about how to run a football club with a soul. I'd be smiling for a year.....all over Europe.
  23. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    Heading into the NLD:

    Chelsea 1/4
    Spurs 4/7
    Arsenal 1

    It will be interesting to see how tomorrow's result changes things.
  24. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    Heading into Liverpool:

    Chelsea 2/9
    Spurs 1/3
    Arsenal 9/4

    Our win in the NLD has made us heavy favorites for the top 4 and dramatically lengthened Arsenal's odds. What a difference one game makes!
  25. The Cryptkeeper Well-Known Member

    The Cryptkeeper
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    If you can get 1/3 take it. We are 1/4 in many spots.
  26. boo Well-Known Member

    boo
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    [TABLE="width: 500"]
    [TR]
    [TD]#[/TD]
    [TD]Tottenham[/TD]
    [TD]Chavs[/TD]
    [TD]Dippers[/TD]
    [TD]le arse[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]March[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]29[/TD]
    [TD]Liverpool - A[/TD]
    [TD]West Ham - H[/TD]
    [TD]Tottenham - H[/TD]
    [TD]Swansea - A[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]30[/TD]
    [TD]Fulham - H[/TD]
    [TD]?????????
    [/TD]
    [TD]Saints - A[/TD]
    [TD]Reading - H[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]31[/TD]
    [TD]Swansea - A[/TD]
    [TD]Saints - A[/TD]
    [TD]Villa - A[/TD]
    [TD]West Brom - A[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]April[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]32[/TD]
    [TD]Everton - H[/TD]
    [TD]Sunderland - H[/TD]
    [TD]West Ham - H[/TD]
    [TD]Norwich - H[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]33[/TD]
    [TD]Chelsea - A[/TD]
    [TD]Tottenham - H[/TD]
    [TD]Reading - A[/TD]
    [TD]Everton - H[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]34[/TD]
    [TD]Man City - H[/TD]
    [TD]Liverpool - A[/TD]
    [TD]Chelsea - H[/TD]
    [TD]Fulham - A[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]35[/TD]
    [TD]Wigan - A[/TD]
    [TD]Swansea - H[/TD]
    [TD]Newcastle - A[/TD]
    [TD]Man Utd - H[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD]May[/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [TD][/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]36[/TD]
    [TD]Saints - H[/TD]
    [TD]Man Utd - A[/TD]
    [TD]Everton - H[/TD]
    [TD]QPR - A[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]37[/TD]
    [TD]Stoke - A[/TD]
    [TD]Villa - A[/TD]
    [TD]Fulham - A[/TD]
    [TD]Wigan - H[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD]38[/TD]
    [TD]Sunderland - H[/TD]
    [TD]Everton - H[/TD]
    [TD]QPR - H[/TD]
    [TD]Newcastle - A[/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
    boo,
  27. conor1 Last tango in Belfast

    conor1
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    I'm sure i saw us at 3/1 to win tomorrow. Dippers at 4/5. Putting my spurs tinted glasses to one side for a moment, thats a massive price for us surely
  28. Boone Well-Known Member

    Boone
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    That Everton, Chelsea, Man City run is going to be tough.
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  29. bfwolf Well-Known Member

    bfwolf
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    The Liverpool loss has us slipping to 4/11, which is to say not very far at all. Gamblers expected us to lose so the loss didn't affect our odds much. Arsenal's odds improved to 9/5.
  30. pzabby Well-Known Member

    pzabby
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    arsenal has the easiest run in with all potential top 4 sides. i'd say dippers second easiest, chavs third, and we have the most difficult....


    in the face of adversity mankind performs better. COYS!

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