Last year, about half the forum was up in arms a few weeks from the end of the season–convinced our poor form was going to cause us to miss a top 4 spot. But the people with real skin in the game, bettors, saw our relatively easy schedule made us strong favorites for a top 4 spot and had us at short odds. As usual, they were right. Of course, Chelsea’s CL triumph screwed us out of our just desserts, but the bettors were right nonetheless. So I thought it would be interesting to have a thread where we keep track of top 4 odds for the remainder of the season. Right now, the longest odds you can get on teams finishing in the top 4 are: Chelsea 1/4 Spurs 1 Arsenal 6/5 Everton 7 Liverpool 7 Basically, bettors are saying Chelsea is a near lock, Everton and Liverpool are long shots, and we and Arsenal will be battling it out for the remaining spot.
A bit strange to have Liverpool and Everton as same odds, Everton have been better all season and more established as a squad. Must be because Everton have a slightly tougher remaining schedule. Otherwise I agree with the odds. I think Chelsea will turn it on the next few games, then maybe slip again when they have nothing to play for, then turn it on at the end to finish third.
Funny thing odds, Crouchy was short odds on the last day of the transfer window to sign for QPR – big money invested. There’s obviously no value in backing Chelsea, us of the scum at those prices, but I might lay Chelsea to not make top 4 for a few quid as I think they could take a tumble.
The best price there is obviously everton at 7s. Otherwise I would lay Chelsea at that price. Given all that, hope whoever bets on us collects a fookin bundle.
I agree, best value to me is Everton or betting against Chelsea. Most books have Everton at shorter odds than Liverpool, but there is one book that has them at 7/1 so that’s what I listed.
Spurs 1??? Does that mean ‘evens’ in old school betting terms?… Fookin decimal betting odds get right up my snout :18: Which puts Arsenal only very slightly further out than us. For those members who dont bet…… if you put £10 on us you get £10 profit If some dumb cnut put £10 on Arsenal they would get £12 profit. which equates to the bookies feeling that spurs have a 20% better chance of a top 4 spot:y2: Nice!!! (20% of £10 = £2……£10 + £2 = £12 a 20% bigger profit & 20% bigger risk/loss for the bookie)
Update: Chelsea 1/5 Spurs 4/5 Arsenal 10/11 Everton 8 Liverpool 16 Top 3 there all got slightly shorter with their wins. Everton didn’t drop much with loss, nobody expected them to beat Man U. Liverpool’s odds more than doubled with their loss to West Brom.
As a proven Jinx I will take the 5th amendment & not answer that with an over confident witty retort….. you could be very right but I cant say :y2: @bfwolf Hmmm so that means that the bookies think that spurs have a 30% better chance of top 4 £10 on spurs returns an £8 gain £10 on the unwashed returns a bigger gain of £9.90……. the bookies feel that offering 19% extra return on £10 is realistic as Spurs have a 19% better chance of getting 4th £1.90 difference on a £10 bet = 19%
I usually like to attach percentages to these even though they say it doesn’t really work that way. Chelsea 1/5 – 100/((1+5)/5) = 83.33% Spurs 4/5 – 100/((4+5)/5) = 55.55% Arsenal 10/11 – 100/((10+11)/11) = 53.38% Everton 8 – 100/((8+1)/1) = 11.11% Liverpool 16 – 100/((16+1)/1) = 5.88%
Realistically though these bets are based on public perceptions also… it is likely Arsenal and Chelsea are more heavily backed than Tottenham, due to recent form, thus will have lower odds.
I have to say thats a very odd way to work out percentages. I would have done (5/5+1)*100 for the first one and similar for the rest.
Doh This is more like it £10 on spurs returns an £8 gain £10 on the unwashed returns a bigger gain of £9.90……. the bookies feel that offering 19% extra return on £10 is realistic as Spurs have a 19% better chance of getting 4th £1.90 difference on a £10 bet = 19%
Eh either way works I guess. =P That’s just the way it was explained when I first wanted to do it and didn’t really understand odds too well. Mainly wanted to calculate odds for a fantasy game. =P Your way is obviously simpler.
Yep I’m with this too…..and don’t be surprised if City slide backwards but probably not out of the top 4. I’m certain but can’t prove it that there is unrest behind the scenes at Chelsea and the waiter doesn’t know what he’s doing. They will only be saved if John Terry takes over for the last 10 games of the season…ha ha. More importantly these odds will change dramatically with our games against Arsenal and Chelsea, if we won those and performed to usual form in the rest (City home win as well maybe) I reckon we’re a good bet for third and that really would be some achievement….letters to Roman Abramovich please about how to run a football club with a soul. I’d be smiling for a year…..all over Europe.
Heading into the NLD: Chelsea 1/4 Spurs 4/7 Arsenal 1 It will be interesting to see how tomorrow’s result changes things.
Heading into Liverpool: Chelsea 2/9 Spurs 1/3 Arsenal 9/4 Our win in the NLD has made us heavy favorites for the top 4 and dramatically lengthened Arsenal’s odds. What a difference one game makes!
#TottenhamChavsDippersle arseMarch29Liverpool – AWest Ham – HTottenham – HSwansea – A30Fulham – H?????????Saints – AReading – H31Swansea – ASaints – AVilla – AWest Brom – AApril32Everton – HSunderland – HWest Ham – HNorwich – H33Chelsea – ATottenham – HReading – AEverton – H34Man City – HLiverpool – AChelsea – HFulham – A35Wigan – ASwansea – HNewcastle – AMan Utd – HMay36Saints – HMan Utd – AEverton – HQPR – A37Stoke – AVilla – AFulham – AWigan – H38Sunderland – HEverton – HQPR – HNewcastle – A
I’m sure i saw us at 3/1 to win tomorrow. Dippers at 4/5. Putting my spurs tinted glasses to one side for a moment, thats a massive price for us surely
The Liverpool loss has us slipping to 4/11, which is to say not very far at all. Gamblers expected us to lose so the loss didn’t affect our odds much. Arsenal’s odds improved to 9/5.
arsenal has the easiest run in with all potential top 4 sides. i’d say dippers second easiest, chavs third, and we have the most difficult…. in the face of adversity mankind performs better. COYS!
